From Kautilya To OSINT: Recurring Problems Of Source, Deception And Judgement In Intelligence-Led Crime Prevention
Vaijayanti Lele, MIT-WPU School of Law;Research Intern, Centre for Crime Sciences and Forensic Intelligence (CCSFI)
ABSTRACT
This article develops a comparative historical stress-test to examine how recurring epistemic problems in intelligence practice can inform contemporary Intelligence-Led Policing (ILP) and Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) without assuming historical continuity. Using a qualitative comparative historical methodology, it examines six historically distinct contexts: Kautilya’s Arthashastra , Sun Tzu’s Art of War, Mughal and Maratha information arrangements, British colonial intelligence, and Bengal revolutionary organisations. Three analytical stress tests examine source plurality under deception, information flow and decision receptivity, and institutionalisation, coercion and archival power. The comparison identifies recurring vulnerabilities in source reliability, corroboration, deception, analytical uncertainty and decision-making, while recognising fundamental differences in institutional scale, legal accountability, technology and organisational form. The article argues that continuity lies in recognisable epistemic vulnerabilities rather than institutional lineage. It contributes a comparative framework with qualified contemporary implications for ILP and OSINT, identifying diagnostic safeguards concerning source evaluation, decision receptivity, institutional restraint and accountability while recognising that constitutional, legal and ethical constraints limit direct historical comparison.
Keywords: Kautilya; Arthashastra; Art of War; Source Reliability; Colonial Intelligence; Intelligence-Led Policing (ILP); Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT).
